Will the Central Bank of Kenya change its policy rate at its next scheduled monetary-policy decision?
50% YES
Model confidence: 40% · Resolves by 09 December 2026
Why the model is here
Evidence ensemble + structured official-data overlay (structured-ke-0.2). Insufficient structured monetary-policy data.
Resolution rule
Resolve from the first official Central Bank of Kenya decision announcing the next scheduled policy-rate outcome.
Probability history
Last updated: 11 Aug 2026 23:17 UTC
- 50.1% — 11 Aug 2026 21:15 UTC
- 50.0% — 11 Aug 2026 21:15 UTC
- 50.1% — 11 Aug 2026 22:16 UTC
- 50.1% — 11 Aug 2026 22:16 UTC
- 50.0% — 11 Aug 2026 22:16 UTC
- 50.1% — 11 Aug 2026 23:17 UTC
- 50.1% — 11 Aug 2026 23:17 UTC
- 50.0% — 11 Aug 2026 23:17 UTC
Evidence snapshot
1 evidence items · 1 model signals
The detailed rationale above explains the current probability. More source-level evidence display will be added only when provenance is safely available for this forecast.
Track record
When this forecast resolves, its final probability and official outcome will be permanently recorded in the public track record.