Evidence-backed forecasting

Know what's likely next.

AfricaPrediction turns official African data, policy signals and market evidence into clear probabilities you can actually understand.

Top forecast

Probabilities change when the evidence changes.

✓ Quality-gated
🇰🇪 KenyaMonetary policy

Will the Central Bank of Kenya change its policy rate at its next scheduled monetary-policy decision?

Why it matters: Rate decisions affect borrowing, investment, the shilling and business confidence.

50%YES
Confidence40%
Evidence1
Signals1
Resolves09 Dec 2026
Why the model says this

Evidence ensemble + structured official-data overlay (structured-ke-0.2). Insufficient structured monetary-policy data.

● OpenExperimental probability

How AfricaPrediction works

Simple on the surface. Evidence-heavy underneath.

1. Official sources firstCentral banks, regulators, statistical agencies, legislatures and other primary sources.
2. Evidence becomes probabilityStructured indicators and policy signals become an explicit probability, not a vague prediction.
3. Every forecast gets judgedQuestions resolve on a defined date so the platform can build a measurable track record.

Track record will be public.

Resolved forecasts, probability history and accuracy metrics will be visible. Credibility should be earned in public.

Kenyafirst live market
Transparent track record Every resolved forecast keeps its original probability, official resolution source and Brier score.
View track record →