AfricaPrediction · Track Record
Every forecast leaves a record.
Resolved forecasts are locked with their probability at resolution, official evidence and scoring. We use Brier scoring so confidence matters—not just whether a forecast happened to be right.
Resolved forecasts
0
Directional accuracy
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Mean Brier score
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Lower Brier scores are better. A perfect probabilistic forecast scores 0. Track-record statistics are intentionally not shown as meaningful until actual forecasts have resolved.
No forecasts have reached a verified resolution yet. The public score will appear automatically as forecasts resolve.